De Guzmán -- Non Sum Dignus

[APorg]

My arrival and stay in Barovia has been unremarkable to date. It is much as I was told to expect: a backwater outpost surrounded by hostile natives.

Reading on the diocese's history, I have been quick to identify the clergy's recurring mistakes. It is disappointing that the most lucid political thinkers are our brethren of the Fourth Sect. My Home Faith compatriots, too blinded perhaps by the Vezzoni incident, or by misbegotten pride, are slow to follow where they lead. Yet it is hard to argue with results; and the Zealots have achieved in a few months as much, if not more, than the Refuge has in as many decades.

Then again: it is easy to grow from nothing. If you survive.

Sentire Mugur strikes me as a man who has lost confidence in himself. He visibly cringes at the weight of responsibility on his shoulders. Would that I could relieve him of it... He has relied entirely too much upon the shield that is Toret Ionelus; without him he knows that we are entirely at the mercy of the Citadel's whims. Who rules the Citadel? Not Svari Ionelus, that much is for sure.

I begin to see the shape of the paths available to me. It frightens me to think of the stakes involved. But if Barovia is to become a bulwark of our Church in the Final Nights, if we are to bring any semblance of unity to these lands, then there can be no more mistakes, no hesitation. We must make the Church great. Our only alternative is the Mists of Death.

[APorg]

The career of the heretic Stefania Milea Milea is possibly the most succinct case study in the foolishness of pursuing tactics at the expense of strategy. Of no particular great talent (indeed she failed her initial Acolyte trials, only becoming an Anchorite upon her next attempt), she displayed some capacity for political cunning and somehow rose to become Sentire of the Refuge. To think! A whole congregation, answerable to a slip of a girl barely out of adolescence! Hardly surprising that she surrounded herself with a small clique of yes-women whose main purpose appears to have been the drowning out of any criticism of her actions.

Her subsequent profound and spectacular failures of leadership in engaging with the Vallaki Citadel and the Burgomistress Vanda Atanasius (An Ezrite Sentire being publically flogged! The humiliation!) prove both how little power the Church truly wields in these lands and how happily the Barovians will stamp on us if we give them half an excuse to do so; the arrogance that the girl displayed gave them just that.

Nothing more need be said of her ill-fated and heretical "Reformation"; go and look for them now.

Two lessons to conclude:
 - The ability to rise to the top of a polity is distinct from that necessary to remain there; beware of promoting people to the level of their incompetence.
 - Barovians will never be awed by displays of Ezrite pomp and ceremony. What of piety and stoicism? Humility may yet be mistrusted.

At any rate, I know now where to start.

[APorg]

It seems I over-estimated the Raduta; or at least Creek. The Toret imprisoned Leonar's heathen lover, allegedly to force the issue of the Warden's impious and improper behaviour. Such recklessness could have risked a renewal of the bloodshed and conflict between the Wachter and Ionelus, had the heathen's friends found out and intervened, only this time the blame would have been pinned squarely on Raduta, and therefore on the Church; make no mistake, the Raduta and the Refuge are virtually as one in the eyes of the Barovians. They will merely seek to exploit our differences.

Fortunately, we acted in time and a wider confrontation was at the very least delayed.

In any case, the entire Leonar debacle proves to be a sideshow, a distraction to the main game of politics afoot. I have been given the privilege of peeking at the true movers and shakers in the Church; been let into their confidence. I must be seen to repay this trust with loyalty and devout service.

[APorg]

This famine exposes the raw dysfunction at the heart of Barovia's feudal contract. Vallaki starves while Wachter enjoys full larders and granaries. Why? Simple. Because if the Ionelus accept Wachter's aid, they prove themselves incapable of ruling and thus undermine their legitimacy. Better the serfs starve than the status quo be challenged; well, better for the Ionelus, at least. Presumably it amuses Strahd to watch his vassals bicker and feud, as long as his taxes are paid. Meanwhile the very people who seek solutions to the crisis are turned into scapeogats! An Ezrite Sentire, feathered and tarred... the indignity!

Never has the need for the universal law and truth of the Church ever been more apparent. But to bring this law to Barovia, that is an undertaking of epic proportions, indeed...

The first steps, at least, are the clearest. One must choose a side. It is the only way to get anywhere in the world. Only loyalty and service earn privilege. Those who stand aside, who make no attempt to seize the moment; those are not the people who change the world, for better or for worse. To change the world, one must lead; though not all leaders sit on a throne...

[APorg]

Wachter has taken the bridge over the river Luna, meaning that all that separates their army from the walls of Vallaki is the patch of land home to the gallows and the Western Outskirts. Though even Wachter ought to be wary of the outlander chaos that is the Outskirts.

My instinct is to back the winner, though there is some trepidation in that thought. After all, a reversal of fortune is hardly off the books. Who can know what fate will hold? And the Ionelus, if more desperate, would be more grateful.

But I don't trust them; or rather, I trust them even less than I trust the Wachter. I have been to both places and I have seen the culture in each; Vallaki's is paranoid, self-destructive and bitter, whereas Wachter's is -- well, sane. Saner. No less vicious, but more calculated. On that basis alone I do not believe the Ionelus can stay in power: they are too consumed by their own fear. Even if something saves them, how long will the good times last before their insane jealousies once more tear apart the peace of the land?

Still -- it is one think to wish to server a master. Now I must yet decide how I may most be useful....

[APorg]

Ambassador.

It's a start.